Does the WTO have a Future?

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Does the WTO have a Future?

The WTO is currently the only organization that oversees international trade. The organization’s primary purpose is to ensure that global free trade flows as smoothly, predictably, and freely as possible; it stands for non-discrimination, competitive and open trading, power balance, and environmental sustainability. (Wto.org, 2017).

The organization has expanded on its original role of providing a forum for governments to negotiate trade agreements. The WTO also serves as an arbitrator for disputes, an inspector of national trade policies that may conflict with global treaties, and a police for transparency in trade policies. As a rules-based, member-driven organization, the WTO mandates that all decisions are reached by consensus of its member states. (Wto.org, 2017)

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The WTO was established in response to a push for global economic cooperation. It replaced the GATT, a multilateral trade agreement, when the GATT could no longer keep up with the economic impact of globalisation[1]. This paper argues that the WTO is facing the same situation as the GATT did. The WTO has evolved to be more than a negotiating platform centred around trade and economic policies; it is now greatly affected by political, social, and cultural issues. Recent events (including the threat of a trade war between China, Russia, and USA; Brexit and the UK’s subsequent role in trade negotiations) are creating situations which the WTO is unequipped to handle – simply because there are no precedents, and proposed solutions are little more than stop-gap, time-consuming measures. The impasse of negotiations[2] and the increase of bilateral and regional accords (with countries creating their own preferential trade agreements) point to the WTO’s diminishing relevance.

The paper proposes that the WTO does not have a future in its current state. It can no longer ensure smooth, predictable, and free-flowing global trade. To remain relevant, the WTO needs to restructure as an organization.

The WTO outlines ten specific outcomes for the organization. The table below highlights how well the WTO has reached its objectives. (Wto.org, 2017)

The WTO can Recent Events not meeting Objectives
  1. Cut living costs and raise living standards
  1. Settle disputes and reduce trade tensions
  • Threat of Trade Wars – Penalty mechanisms are outdated and cannot be realistically applied.
  1. Stimulate economic growth and employment
  1. Cut the cost of doing business internationally
  1. Encourage good governance
  • Emergence of large FTA agreements outside of the WTO which set preferential agreements.
  1. Help countries develop
  • Power disparity between larger WTO countries and developing nations.
  1. Give the weak a stronger voice
  • As above
  1. Support the environment and health
  • Shrimp-Turtle case put trade before environment.
  • Protect pharma patents and ‘Right to Profit’. Developing countries not guaranteed to receive help.
  1. Contribute to peace and stability
  1. Be effective without hitting the headlines

As shown in the table above, the WTO is clearly not meeting all objectives which begs the question – does the WTO have a future? An organization that does not meet is objectives will find it difficult to sustain its relevance and international authority if it continues in this manner.

As mentioned previously, the WTO is failing to achieve some of its desired outcomes due to the current trade environment. The key failings are discussed in more detail below.