Technical Analysis of Markets

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Technical Analysis of Markets

Josip Arneric, Elza Jurun, Snjezana pivac describes that technical analysis is done to find out the price movements whereas fundamental analysis is done to predict values by looking at the fundamentals of a particular company. They focuses on technical analysis in their article and defines that trend can be of two types on the basis of either time structure or general direction.

In their article they apply smoothing techniques by using simple moving averages. They also discussed Bollinger bands and relative strength index.

This paper mainly focused on the technical analysis by applying exponential weighted moving averages because of the disadvantage of simple moving averages by observing the Podravka stocks in order to find out difference in the long and short term strategies by finding out the reliable signals to buy and sell.

Professor Veroljub says in his article that the way of investing is to sell when prices are at top and to buy when prices are at lower whatever the patterns are. In his articles he has discussed the market efficiency theory, Classical theory, confidence theory and Dow Theory. He also differentiates between the Classical and Confidence theory.

He says that Technical analysis is mainly used by those who are interested in share prices movements and trends for a short period of time that according to him ranges from 1-3 months.

His article focuses on how people can be able to reach to the secrets of share prices and changes and movements in them. He says that it is very difficult to deal with stock markets because there are so many factors and those factors sometimes behave so unpredictably that people have very less chances to get something out of their investments or sometimes even both the experts or the investors have equal chances due to instability of market and factors.

He concludes that if we are not able to play with stock market efficiently then it is better to have profits more than inflation and with minimum risks by focusing on diversification.

Wing-Keung Wong, Meher Manzur and Boon-Kiat Chew (2002) article discuss that the helpful principle of technical analysis is to identify trends and then go with the trend whether it is occurring randomly or due to fundamental factors. He also discussed the techniques of moving averages and relative strength index (RSI) by applying it on Singapore stock exchanges.

His results shows that application of RSI using (touch, Peak and retracement methods) is good if used in non-trending environment and the results indicate that using simple moving averages and 50 crossover method of RSI will provide good results excluding the transaction costs.

The whole article concludes that using indicators like RSI and simple moving averages in Singapore market provides positive gains. As it has also been seen that members of Singapore market uses such indicators and enjoy good results.

Manuel Ammann, Matthias Rekate and Rico Von Wyss The text of that article to show an outperformance of technical analysis. The extent of academic acceptance of using technical analysis is not so good as compared to its practical application and it has been said that technical analysis is combination of separate methods than a full proper system or method.

The article discuss that technical analysis is connected with the forces of demand and supply and sentiments in markets so it is very useful in short term also because technical indicators can be calculated and applied quickly whereas fundamental techniques may take days to apply.

They discussed simple moving average techniques, RSI and advance/decline ratios technique and applied it onto 18 stocks out of the Swiss Stock market and conclude that application of technical analysis including transaction costs provides results not more than a buy or hold strategy but advance/decline ratios are more helpful and successful even when transaction costs are taken into account.

Treynor and Ferguson (1985) has established the first theoretical model to apply technical analysis and model describes that investors choose strategies to hold a security for a particular time period either long or short in order to get benefit from it later after they receive private information at particular point of time. The model concludes that this private information is helpful only with the combination of some additional or further information.

Brown and Jennings (1989) in the article on outperformance of technical analysis says that portfolio strategies works so well when the market does not contain all relevant information and there are only few investors who are well aware of that information.

Osler and Chang (1995) in their research work on application of technical analysis by using “head and shoulders” and results showed that the charts technique also gives partially fruitful predictions.

William Brock, Josef Lakonishok and Blake LeBaron(1992) In his article describes that technical analysis is helpful in predicting future price movements by observing past prices and their trends and it also discuss that movements in supply and demand can also be seen from charts and graphs. According to the article, Technical analysis has been considered to be the most original form of investment and the oldest technique in this regard is presented by Charles Dow which can range from very simple to the extremes.

Their article explore moving averages and support and resistance levels in order to find out generation of signals for the long and short time period and then to check high and low hits of prices. Article says that we cannot allow to leave those false patterns which are not covered by technical analysis tools and techniques because it is very difficult to enquire too much about data but we can be able to reduce this problem either by providing full reporting of techniques used or by using a very long data and information.

So in their article, they used data series i-e Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA) and in addition to statistical tools applied bootstrap methodology.

The main focus of their study is on the simplest trading techniques and rules because they are helpful in finding out the much hidden patterns and trends but including transaction costs will make the application of Technical rules more powerful.

So the article concludes that application of technical rules using moving averages and support/resistance are not consistent when compared with the models of AR (1), GARCH-M and Exponential GARCH.Buy signals are more useful and less volatile in getting positive returns as compared to the sell signals.

Michael D. Goldberg and Stephan Schulmeister (1988) the text of the Article explains the technical analysis and market efficiency. The concept that Financial markets are efficient discuss that in such world, the use of trading rules on the basis of previous price movements is not reasonable but on the other hand, according to the efficient market views, Technical analysis has its own importance and is well-known in today’s market.

They says that application of trading rules sometimes at a particular period of time are profitable but in fact causes some of investors to consider mistakenly that they have able to beat the market. But if done for proper time, will result in finding that these are only “noise” which makes us feel that it is profitable.

Another major finding is the above text Article is that technical analysis rules are more profitable when the amount of data is increased; it means investors can have more profits with hourly data as compared to the daily data. They conclude that generally used Technical rules are more constantly profitable as compared to Filter rule.

The text of the article also focuses on using trading rules on the basis of gross returns, on the basis of net returns and concludes that past prices do contain some information relevant for predicting future prices. And that Flter rule produces large number of trading signals.

The text of Article presents an analysis based on observation and experiments on the profitability of stock market from 1970-1980 to check whether excess profits can be gained by using the information in past prices of stocks and the results showed that stoc