Introduction

The World Health Organisation declared COVID-19 a global pandemic in March 2020 (Yamin, 2020). Originating in Wuhan, China, the virus has spread quickly across the globe sending a shockwave of uncertainty, fear and confusion (ibid.). Unlike previous global pandemics such as the Spanish Flu which had taken around 40 million lives between 1918-1920, COVID-19 has seen roughly 1.5 million deaths as of December 2020 yielding a mortality rate of around 2% (Altig et al., 2020). Although this is not the deadliest virus we have encountered, it has had unprecedented implications on the global economy, leaving economists fearing that an impending economic crisis is on our door-step (Nicola et al., 2020).

This study hopes to develop an understanding of how government initiatives towards economic stability will affect the rate of economic recovery post-COVID-19.

As such, I will try to answer these research questions:

1. Will economic fragility caused by COVID-19 outlive the virus and lead to greater health and well-being issues?
2. To what extent has economic policy enacted in the UK, US, China and Singapore effected the rate of their recovery?

The forecasting and analysis of data collected in 2020 although limited gives a basic understanding of how a pandemic influences a modern economy (Yamin, 2020). It is imperative that this data is used to formulate mitigation efforts in the event that the pandemic is prolonged, both economic and social. Like an earthquake, after the initial pandemic shock, aftershocks that proceed will likely have greater impacts, directly focused on domestic and regional economies (Kimera et al., 2020).

Literature Review

My research is grounded in an economic framework, focusing on the actions of nations in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. I will address the implications of the virus and government stimulus on unemployment rates and GDP as well as their effects on the expected time of recovery.

COVID-19’s economic impacts are an anomaly, in comparison to previous pandemics (Spanish Flu and annual influenza outbreaks) with the sudden economic shock having unprecedented consequences, visible in the high unemployment rates of many developed nations (Altig et al., 2020). The World Bank (WB) has projected that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will cause global GDP to fall by 2% (WB, 2020). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) argues that this indicates a high risk for economic crises following the initial financial shock (2020). In order to curb this financial crisis, the WB suggests that a quick policy response is necessary, exemplified in East Asia, to not only flatten he curve of infection but also reduce economic impact facilitated by global lockdowns (Kimeria et al., 2020). East Asia has implemented a mixed approach of both social and economic measures to help alleviate the stress on both the healthcare system and the economic costs of fatalities (ibid.).

China managed to reduce impacts and infection rates of COVID-19 after a 41-day lockdown between the 22^nd January and 29^th February allowing room to recover quickly from the initial shock of the pandemic (John Hopkins School of Public Heath, 2020). As of October, 22^nd 2020, the IMF announced that China implemented a RMB 4.6 trillion (4.5% of GDP) fiscal stimulus package (IMF, 2020). This was in hopes of increased economic spending towards pandemic mitigation and control as well as an accelerated endorsement of unemployment benefits (ibid.). Both their policy regulation and mitigation has made the effects of the lockdown temporary for China’s economy which as of now, is argued to be the only econ